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Are the majority of published scientific research claims false?

March 20, 2010 by Wes Alwan Leave a Comment

The epistemology vs. epidemiology (Odds Are, It's Wrong - Science News):

“There is increasing concern,” declared epidemiologist John Ioannidis in a highly cited 2005 paper in PLoS Medicine, “that in modern research, false findings may be the majority or even the vast majority of published research claims.”

...

Nowhere are the problems with statistics more blatant than in studies of genetic influences on disease.

...

Statisticians perpetually caution against mistaking statistical significance for practical importance, but scientific papers commit that error often. Ziliak studied journals from various fields — psychology, medicine and economics among others — and reported frequent disregard for the distinction.

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Such sad statistical situations suggest that the marriage of science and math may be desperately in need of counseling.

...

“What does probability mean in real life?” the statistician David Salsburg asked in his 2001 book The Lady Tasting Tea. “This problem is still unsolved, and ... if it remains un solved, the whole of the statistical approach to science may come crashing down from the weight of its own inconsistencies.”

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Filed Under: Web Detritus Tagged With: philosophy of science, probability, statistics

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